A Fading Fatah?
- November 27th, 2012
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The view in the Palestinian world is that Hamas successfully rebuffed Israel’s attacks their 8 day conflict. This success by Hamas has revived political momentum for reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah in the West Bank. The two groups diverged after Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. Whereas Hamas seeks to establish an Islamist state and will use violent means to achieve it, Fatah espouses secular nationalism and has sought international recognition of Palestine to achieve this, albeit as a “last ditch effort.”
While there have been conflicts between Hamas and other similar groups in Gaza in the past, the most recent Israeli conflict has solidified, at least temporarily, Hamas’ leadership of the radical wing of the Palestinian movement. The “success” (or at least perceived success in the Palestinian world) of Hamas recently, however, has bought this ideological debate within the Palestinian movement to the forefront. If Gaza and the West Banka re to act together again, will they follow the model of Fatah and focus on UN recognition, or will they follow the model of Hamas and use violence to establish an Islamist state? The recent conflict would suggest that a combined movement would follow the rubric of Hamas. PNA President Mahmoud Abbas has already faced political pressure within the West Bank for his passive stance during the conflict and his focus on UN recognition as the road to sovereignty for Palestine.
-Andrew
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/for-palestinians-gaza-conflict-deepens-sense-of-futility-with-nonviolent-approach-toward-israel/2012/11/24/ea2ce918-3668-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_story.html
Even if the the resolution passes, it will not change the facts on the ground. It will further anger Israel, who see it as an avoidance of the negotiations promised in the Oslo Accords, and it will exacerbate the division within the PA. While Abbas will see the resolution as a political victory, the reality will be that over half of the West Bank will still be controlled by Israel. Compared to the concrete “victory” of Hamas preventing an Israeli armed invasion, to the eyes of many Palestinians Hamas will be the greater provider, not Fatah. This is not to overlook the problems Hamas has faced in governing Gaza and from other violent Islamist groups, but the prominence the recent conflict has bought Hamas will serve to illustrate the difference between the two factions ideas of “progress” should the resolution pass. Fatah may not be supplanted by Hamas, but the fracture that began in 2007 is widening.
Right now Mr. Abbas seems set on achieving non-member observer state status at the United Nations – just today France announced its support for the PA’s upcoming bid in the General Assembly. If Mr. Abbas successfully attains this recognition for Palestinians, then he may feel vindicated and resist pressure to reach out to the more militant Hamas, since his (albeit slow) tactics seem to possibly be working. Whether or not Fatah’s position relatively weakens to Gaza’s Hamas will probably in large part be determined by this upcoming UN General Assembly vote.