Last week I wrote on how the Chinese have taken the role as sole guardian of North Korea. After I had finished that blog post the Russians announced that they would be forgiving a significant amount of North Korean debt. Along with that came news that they would be investing in the DPRK as well rendering my entire conclusion void.

It seems now that North Korea has become a much more secure state. Where they had to solely lean on China to ward of the United States and to receive aid they can now count on another power to back them. This will complicate things for the US government but not to a large extent. Russia will probably not tolerate any wild actions undertaken by the North Korean regime but will allow action to be taken against them.

All this seems to have changed is that North Korean reform or even collapse is no longer something that must happen. It may happen and the regime may change on, but that change will not come solely from China’s influence. Any major overhauls or changes to the system now will have to be a result of pressure from either both Russia and China or from a desire by the North Korean government. Still with new foreign money flowing in and a forgiven debt it’s unlikely the North Korean government will want to change.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/korea-north-debt-idINL3E8KI19K20120918

Ryan Thompson